As the toast first slides and then falls off the table it starts to tip over. The tipping point is when the centre of gravity of the toast first leaves the table - for a perfectly square flat piece of pre-sliced toast this will be bang in the middle.
As the toast tips, one side slips down and the other up - the toast is actually gaining angular momentum as gravity pulls on one side and the table resists on the other. Once free of the table the angular momentum doesn't, and can't, just disappear. Instead the toast continues to spin.
The rate at which the toast spins depends on three things, the initial forces it feels as it leaves the table, how long it takes to go from tipping to free fall, and how the mass of the toast is distributed within the slice. As pieces of toast are pretty much all alike (the same mass and distribution of that mass, and the same friction with a table), the way the toast spins as it falls is the same for all loaves of bread.
Tables are also pretty much the same height. So all slices of toast, spinning at the same rate and falling a similar distance, will rotate the same amount as they fall off an average table, usually somewhere between a quarter of a turn and three quarters of a turn. Anywhere in this region will cause the toast to land buttered side down.
If the table is higher, or you push it from an upstairs window the toast will have more chance to turn. Once in a full fall, air resistance comes into play and the angular momentum from the initial fall can be lost. The toast will land butter-up or butter-down an equal number of times.
Make sure there is no one below you on the ground, although probably not fatal it would be unpleasant to be hit by cold, buttered, falling toast.
Source: NESTA
Date: 04 December 2007
Subject: Miscellaneous Physics Engineering
Suitability: Adults/Parents Anyone Over 16s Over 14s Over 11s Over 7s Professionals Teachers